About Me
I was on the staff of the Federal Reserve Board's International Finance Division beginning in 1994, after being an assistant and (tenured) associate professor at Penn State University. I retired from the Fed in May 2021 and have joined Fudan University in Shanghai as Professor in the Fudan International School of Finance.
Email: johnrogers@fudan.edu.cn or aegjrogers@gmail.com
Google scholar: Here
CV: Here
New Research
U.S.-China Tension: Paper UCT Figure UCT index*
* when using our series, please cite Rogers, J. H., Sun, B., Sun, T. (2024), "U.S.-China Tension," working paper, www.johnrogerseconomist.net
Drivers of the Global Financial Cycle: ISOM paper ISOM slides
The Effect of the China Connect: Shanghai Forum slides Paper
Chinese Mutual Fund Managers: Paper (Management Science) A Second Paper (JFQA forthcoming)
U.S. Monetary Policy and International Mutual Fund Investment: Paper (JIMF)
Forecasting Performance of Uncertainty Measures: Paper (JMCB forthcoming) Appendix
Macro Transmission of (Un-)Predictable Uncertainty Shocks: Slides Paper
Firm Financial Conditions and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: Paper
The Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy on Foreign Firms: Paper Draft for IMF ARC Revised paper (IMF Economic Review)
Capital Controls in EMDE and U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers: Paper Slides
Pandemics: Paper (JEEA Oct. 2023)
Data
U.S.-China Tension: Paper UCT Figure UCT index*
* when using our series, please cite Rogers, J. H., Sun, B., Sun, T. (2024), "U.S.-China Tension," working paper, www.johnrogerseconomist.net
Husted-Rogers-Sun (JME, Nov. 2020) U.S. monetary policy uncertainty MPU index Paper
Bu-Rogers-Wu (JME, March 2021) Fed monetary policy shock series Paper
Rogers-Scotti-Wright (JMCB, May 2018) Fed monetary policy shock series Paper
Research Summary
My research focuses on empirical monetary economics, international finance, and macroeconomics. Over the years, my research interests comprised six broad, and somewhat overlapping, themes:
1. Border Effects, including "How Wide is the Border?" with Charles Engel, American Economic Review 86, 1112-25 (December 1996);
2. Spillovers Across Countries, including “The Effect of the China Connect”, with Chang Ma and Sili Zhou (see FEDS working paper and VoxChina, 2019); “Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery”, with Chang Ma and Sili Zhou (JEEA); and “U.S.-China Tension”, with Bo Sun and Tony Sun, where we construct a novel index of tension between the U.S. and China, and examine its economic transmission to the aggregate economy and firms;
3. Monetary Policy, including "Monetary Policy’s Role in Exchange Rate Behavior," with Jon Faust, Journal of Monetary Economics 50:7, 1403-1424 (October 2003) and "A Unified Measure of Fed Monetary Policy Shocks", with Chunya Bu and Wenbin Wu, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 118, pp. 331-349 (March 2021), and again including several of the new papers above;
4. Exchange Rates, including "The High Frequency Response of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to Macro Announcements," with Jon Faust, Shing-Yi Wang and Jonathan Wright, Journal of Monetary Economics 54, 1051-1068 (May 2007) and "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We’ve Really Made," with Jon Faust and Jonathan Wright, Journal of International Economics 60, 35-60 (May 2003);
5. Current Accounts, including "Government Budget Deficits and Trade Deficits: Are Present-Value Constraints Satisfied in Long-Term Data?", with Shaghil Ahmed, Journal of Monetary Economics 36, 351-74 (October 1995) and "The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output," with Charles Engel Journal of Monetary Economics 53, 1063-1093 (July 2006);
6. Uncertainty, including “Monetary Policy Uncertainty,” with Lucas Husted and Bo Sun; Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 115, pp. 20-36 (Nov. 2020), “Macroeconomic Transmission of (Un-)Predictable Uncertainty Shocks”, with Jose Ferrer and Jiawen Xu, “What is Certain about Uncertainty?” with Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, et. al. (2020).
Teaching
I have taught graduate and undergraduate courses at several universities, including University of Virginia (as a PhD student), University of Kentucky, Penn State, Johns Hopkins, Georgetown University, Fudan University, and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.
Fudan Public Lecture series presentations on U.S. monetary policy: September 2022 June 2022 February 2023 February 2024